According to the latest report from heavy reading, 100G era has arrived, but work has already begun on beyond 100G (B100G) and terabit transport, and readiness for these holds the big is key to future success in this market.
Optical transport has entered the 100G era, but readiness for beyond 100G (B100G) and terabit transport is key to future success in this market, according to a major new report from Heavy Reading, the research division of Light Reading.
The Rise of 100G & Terabit Transport Networks tackles the challenges and opportunities of high-speed DWDM transport, in both long-haul and metro networks, looking at both 100G and B100G. The report presents comprehensive forecasts for long-haul and metro DWDM transport, with breakouts for units shipped, capacity shipped, revenue contribution by port speed and more. In addition, the report analyzes key enabling technologies for B100G and provides a roundup of significant B100G trial activity over the past year.
“Heavy Reading believes that B100G work began at the right time in order to build a solid, standardized technology base and ecosystem for the future,” explains Sterling Perrin, Senior Analyst with Heavy Reading and author of the report. “Recent history indicates that B100G will take five years (or more) to move from hero experiments to wide commercialization. Standards on both the client side (led by the IEEE) and the line side (led by the ITU-T) are still very much a work in progress, and standards and technologies need time to develop and mature.”
We believe that B100G uptake will follow a measured pattern, with widespread commercial adoption occurring beyond the five-year time horizon of our current forecast, Perrin notes. “Still, work on B100G will – and should – continue in order to make B100G the most economical option for backbone network transport. When the cost per bit for B100G becomes lower than for 100G transport, B100G will begin to move into the mainstream as the replacement for 100G.”
Key findings of The Rise of 100G & Terabit Transport Networks include the following:
The era of 100G has arrived, particularly for long-haul DWDM networks. Global revenue from 100G systems was $1.6 billion in 2013 and is forecast to increase to $5.0 billion by 2018, representing a 26.4 percent CAGR during the forecast period. As 100G increases, 10G and 40G revenue will decline rapidly.
In long-haul networks, 100G is already the primary line rate in terms of capacity shipped. In 2013, 100G unseated 10G in capacity shipped, accounting for 47 percent of capacity shipped during the year. In 2018, we forecast that 100G will account for 93 percent of capacity shipped, as 10G and 40G decline to minimal amounts and the 400G ramp-up proceeds slowly.
Perhaps the most significant technology change in moving from 100G to beyond 100G is the super channel. Super channels enable the industry to get to higher bit rates five or even 10 years sooner than would be possible with single-channel technology. The reason is that optical transmission is far ahead of electronic processing.
While wide-scale deployments of B100G line rates are still years away, operator interest in flexible ROADMs that support these B100G line rates is far more immediate. Network operators are demanding that their 100G systems be B100G-ready, meaning that they contain flexible ROADM hardware, even if they have no near-term plans to “turn on” the function.
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