Road to 5G: Ericsson predicts 1 billion 5G subscriptions in 2023

Ericsson forecasts there will be 1 billion 5G subscriptions for enhanced mobile broadband by 2023. This prediction is among the key statistics presented in the November edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report.

Expected to be deployed first in dense urban areas, 5G will cover over 20 percent of the world’s population by the end of 2023. The first commercial networks based on 5G New Radio (NR) are expected to go live in 2019, with major deployments from 2020. Early 5G deployments are foreseen in several markets, including the US, South Korea, Japan, and China.

Global mobile data traffic to surpass 100 Exabytes per month in 2023

Mobile data traffic is expected to surge by eight times during the forecast period, reaching 110 Exabytes per month by 2023. This corresponds to 5.5 million years of HD video streaming.

All regions maintain mobile data traffic growth, with North America showing the highest average usage per smartphone, exceeding 7GB per month by the end of 2017.

Video consumption continues to fuel mobile broadband traffic growth. The driving force behind video’s uptrend are the young millennials – those in the 15 to 24 age bracket - who stream 2.5X more than those over 45 years of age.

Streaming video in higher resolutions and an emerging trend of increased streaming of immersive video formats, such as 360-degree video, will have an impact on data traffic consumption volumes. For example, a YouTube 360-degree video uses 4 to 5 times as much bandwidth as a normal YouTube video of the same perceived quality.

LTE deployments – momentum continues

By the end of this year, LTE will be the dominant mobile access technology. It is estimated to reach 5.5 billion subscriptions and cover more than 85 percent of the world’s population by the end of 2023.

Voice over LTE (VoLTE) has been launched in more than 125 networks in over 60 countries across all regions. VoLTE subscriptions are projected to reach 5.5 billion by the end of 2023, accounting for more than 80 percent of the combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.

Smartwatches are one of the latest devices to use VoLTE. Users are able to make voice calls directly on their smartwatch, without having a smartphone nearby (multi-SIM). Calls can also be transferred between a user’s smartphone and watch.

Niklas Heuveldop, Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Technology and Emerging Business, Ericsson, says: “The latest report highlights trends in mobile subscription and data traffic growth, as well as the industry’s effort to tackle the increasing demands on mobile networks globally. In addition, the report examines the emergence of new use cases as network capabilities evolve – smartwatches, IoT alarms, and augmented reality-assisted maintenance and repair, to name a few. As we prepare for 5G, these trends will continue to set the agenda for the mobile industry going forward.”

A look at the India Market – Mobile data traffic in India to grow 11 times from 2017 to 2023

The total mobile data traffic per month in India is expected to grow 11 times during the forecast period from 1.3 EB to 14 EB by 2023.  The report estimates that the monthly data usage per smartphone (GB/month) in India will increase 5 times from 3.9 GB in 2017 to 18 GB by 2023. The total mobile subscriptions in the country as per the report stood at 1.185 billion in Q3 2017.

“We expect LTE to be the most dominant technology in India by 2023” states Nitin Bansal, Managing Director , Ericsson India .LTE will account for more than 60% of the total subscriptions in the country by 2023 compared to the 12% LTE subscriptions in 2017. The report estimates that there will be around 800 million VoLTE subscribers in India by 2023, growing at a CAGR of 42.5% between 2017 and 2023.